Through three games, Alex Smith has generated an EPA per dropback of .16, and he ranks second (behind Drew Brees) with the lowest percentage of turnover-worthy throws in the NFL. The Lions offense continues to perform well with Matthew Stafford posting a passer rating of 132.5 when targeting Golden Tate. We got a lot of flack for curbing some of the enthusiasm over the Vikings win total coming into the year, but they are likely heading to 1-3-1 this week in Philadelphia, with Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford (twice) left on their schedule. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. For example, a heavy favorite playing at home is expected to outplay the visitor, so a victory would result in only a small rise in their PFF ELO rating and a similarly-small decrease in the defeated team’s. Check back to profootballfocus.com for weekly college spread picks using this model (as well as other information) and check out. With Will Fuller getting banged up, rookie Keke Coutee emerged opposite Deandre Hopkins. The Rams are currently 3.3/1 on MyBookie to win the Super Bowl – the odds-on favorite to come out of an NFC and an NFL that has been less than top heavy so far. They are allowing the fourth-fewest expected points added on early down pass plays, and Jimmy Smith returns this week. Deshaun Watson had his best game in 2018 and now has an EPA per dropback of .15. Admittedly, we were probably too high on their defense, even before they suffered cluster injuries to their secondary. Manning has checked down to his running backs on 26.5% of attempts. The Bills offense was shut out at Green Bay this past Sunday, and with the way Josh Allen performed it probably won’t be the last time. Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk are blushing. In today’s NFL, a bye can often mean winning, and with the Bucs and the Falcons going down in week four, the picture in the NFC South became a bit clearer for the team from Charlotte – it’s New Orleans’ (with a 52 percent chance to win the division). That will need to change in a hurry for them to win their second consecutive NFC North title for the first time since 2008 and 2009. Like all ELO systems, PFF ELO is an iterative system that updates each team’s rating after each game based on two things: how well they played against their opponent and how well they were expected to play against their opponent. 2018 PFF NFL Power Rankings – Wild Card Weekend. Alas, we’re on to week 5. The passing defense has been atrocious though, allowing a successful pass on over 65% of early down attempts. They have the lowest pressure percentage in the NFL by a wide margin, and they're allowing the third-worst EPA on early down pass attempts among teams from the AFC. Talk of his arm not being right have to be squashed after throwing 62 attempts and having an aDOT of 8.6. The Cowboys needed some late-game heroics from Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to beat the Lions at home. The Bills offense was shut out at Green Bay this past Sunday, and with the way, PFF Greenline for our NFL version of the product. It's 2018, and we've all been doing this long enough to know that once the season starts, one-week streamers and schedule-based sleepers rule the day. Rushing Leader: Ezekiel Elliott, 1434 Yds. Their offense has been brilliant since Week 1 though, with Matt Ryan generating over a quarter of an expected point each time he drops back to pass. Of course, we know that because of the fluky nature of takeaways and defensive touchdowns, some teams will disappoint (looking at you, Minnesota and Denver) and others will surprise (Detroit, New Orleans). The fact that he is taking so many shots downfield and not connecting is leaving this offense in long yardage situations, and if he cannot connect deep, this offense will struggle to move the ball. That said, there’s a lot to like about the Panthers this week against the Giants. They let the Jets back into the game a bit, but last Sunday had the 2017 Jags feel to it – get out ahead with a stifling defense and an offense that is good enough to get the job done. The Texans required extra time, but they finally overcame the Colts with a last-second field goal. This is a team that was low-key close to having a rebuilding year with a rookie quarterback (their coach was one of the options for the “first to be fired” future in many sports books). From an early down EPA standpoint, the Giants have generated the second-lowest amount in the NFL on pass plays. Andy Dalton has looked the part of an elite level quarterback through four games, posting an EPA per dropback of .19. 1. Matt Patricia’s defense is the cause of their early season struggles. Sam Darnold’s performance in Week 1 is now a distant memory after facing off against two of the best defenses in the NFL in subsequent weeks. He needed overtime to do it, but Jon Gruden finally secured his first win since returning to the sidelines. Things will likely not get any better this week against a Falcons teams whose offense has lit the league on fire the last few weeks.
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